Publications

Bite marks, shoe prints, crime-scene fibers: Matches to suspects are often far shakier than courtroom experts claim. Better statistical methods — among them, a little beast known as the “likelihood ratio” — can cut down on wrong convictions.

‘So what exactly is a p-value?’ That’s the number-one question I get from non-scientists when they hear my specialty is communicating p-values and other statistics.

Bite marks, shoe prints, crime-scene fibers: Matches to suspects are often far shakier than courtroom experts claim. Better statistical methods — among them, a little beast known as the “likelihood ratio” — can cut down on wrong convictions.

Theodore W. Anderson, a statistician whose work brought a new mathematical rigor to economics and social science in the postwar years and helped pave the way for modern econometrics and data analysis

Humans are remarkably good at self-deception. But growing concern about reproducibility is driving many researchers to seek ways to fight their own worst instincts.

Humans are remarkably good at self-deception. But growing concern about reproducibility is driving many researchers to seek ways to fight their own worst instincts.

Psychology researchers have recently found themselves engaged in a bout of statistical soul-searching. In apparently the first such move ever for a scientific journal the editors of Basic and Applied Social Psychology announced in a February editorial that researchers who submit studies for publication would not be allowed to use a common suite of statistical methods, including a controversial measure called the p-value.

WE ARE in a bar, and agree to toss a coin for the next round. Heads, I pay; tails, the drinks are on you. What are your chances of a free pint? Most people – sober ones, at least – would agree: evens. Then I flip the coin and catch it, but hide in it the palm of my hand. What’s your probability of free beer now?

P values, the ‘gold standard’ of statistical validity, are not as reliable as many scientists assume.

P values, the ‘gold standard’ of statistical validity, are not as reliable as many scientists assume.