WE ARE in a bar, and agree to toss a coin for the next round. Heads, I pay; tails, the drinks are on you. What are your chances of a free pint? Most people – sober ones, at least – would agree: evens. Then I flip the coin and catch it, but hide in it the palm of my hand. What’s your probability of free beer now?
A feature article for New Scientist on the Bayesian/Frequentist divide. Read it here (subscription paywall).